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© Copyright 2008-2015
R.J.O’Brien Market Research & Trading.
All rights reserved.

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Welcome. R.J.O'Brien Market Research & Trading is dedicated to providing commodity futures
and options traders the latest technical analysis and fundamental research on the financial,
agricultural, energy, foreign exchange, soft & metal markets.
Market Spotlight
 
 



(C) Pre-Report Comments/Analysis for March 31 USDA Grain Reports -by Randy Mittelstaedt
Fundamentals
March 27, 2015; 1:05pm

On Tuesday, March 31, the USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report. The March Grain Stocks report is typically critically important for the corn market given with implications for feed usage estimates, while the Prospective Plantings report will help set the stage for new crop balance sheet expectations as we head into the 2015/16 planting season. The more-than-comfortable old crop balance sheets may help shield the market from some degree of volatility that may be seen if any “surprises” are reported, but these reports certainly hold the potential to set the overall tone of the market for weeks, or even months, to come.

A PDF summary of average trade estimates for Tuesday’s reports is attached to this post.

(HG) S-T Mo Failure Stems Copper Rally, Exposes Correction; Silver Defines Interim High -by Dave Toth
Technicals
March 27, 2015; 12:29pm

MAY COPPER

Yesterday afternoon's failure below our short-term risk parameter at 2.7730 introduced in yesterday morning's Technical Blog defines 23-Mar's 2.9145 high as the END of the rally from 18-Mar's 2.5525 low and exposes what we believe is an

(W) Wheat Stems Recovery Attempt, Perpetuates Correction vs Reversal Dilemma -by Dave Toth
Technicals
March 27, 2015; 8:51am

The market's gross failure to sustain last Fri and Mon's gains above 16-Mar's 5.16 high and subsequent failure below our short-term risk parameter defined by 18-Mar's 5.01 low compromises a broader base/reversal prospect and identifies the

(BO) CBOT Grains Morning Comments
Fundamentals
March 27, 2015; 8:24am

-Argentine corn/soybean harvest underway
-Wheat OI jumps on yesterday's price weakness
-Lower EU crop estimates
-Hogs and pigs report this afternoon
-S. Plains rains chances improving

(EU) S-T Mo Failure Stems Euro Recovery Attempt, Could Re-expose Secular Bear -by Dave Toth
Technicals
March 27, 2015; 7:57am

EURUSD

The 240-min chart below details yesterday afternoon's momentum failure below our short-term risk parameter at 1.0890 introduced in yesterday's Technical Webcast.  As a result of this confirmed bearish divergence in momentum the market has defined yesterday's 1.1053 high as the END of at least the

(NG) Nat Gas Poised to Resume Major Bear -by Dave Toth
Technicals
March 27, 2015; 6:50am

Yesterday's break below the past month's 2.70/.71-area support reinforces a broader bearish count that contends the past quarter's mere lateral chop is a major bear market correction.  This latest spate of weakness leaves 05-Feb's 2.620 low in the now-prompt May contract as the lone remaining hurdle to the

(ES) RJO Previews & Perspectives for Friday, March 27
Fundamentals
March 26, 2015; 7:47pm

  • U.S. GDP expected to dip to +2.2% in Q1 but then improve to long-run rate near +3.0%
  • U.S. consumer confidence expected to be revised higher
  • Will an Iranian nuclear agreement be reached by coming Tuesday?


(ES) Global Calendar - Friday 3/27/15
Fundamentals
March 26, 2015; 7:46pm

 Global Calendar - Friday 3/27/15

(CL) Commodity Calendar - Friday 3/27/2015
Fundamentals
March 26, 2015; 7:45pm

 Commodity Calendar - Friday 3/27/2015

(ES) Market Recap - Financials, Metals & Energy
Fundamentals
March 26, 2015; 7:43pm

The S&P 500 Thursday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower:  S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.32%.  Bearish factors included (1) heightened geopolitical risks after Saudi Arabia launched air strikes against rebel targets in Yemen, and (2) comments from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who said he still favors raising interest rates despite some softer readings in growth.  Stocks recovered from their worst losses after U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -9,000 to 282,000, more than expectations for a -1,000 decline to 290,000.

(S) Hedge & Spec Option Strategies to Engage Key Crop Reports -by Dave Toth
Technicals, Trade Strategies
March 26, 2015; 1:52pm

Only a glance at the daily log chart of the Nov contract is needed to glean two things:

  1. a lateral, choppy mess since 29Sep14's 9.27 low
  2. the 9.39-to-9.27-range as key support separating this market from the abyss.
While this 9.39-to-9.27-range holds, we cannot rule out another intra-range rebound that could be significant given historically bearish sentiment levels.

(C) New Key S-T Risk Parameters in May, Dec Corn -by Dave Toth
Technicals, Webcasts
March 26, 2015; 11:55am

The developing combination of waning upside momentum, an arguably complete 5-wave Elliott sequence and an "outside day" in both May and Dec contracts is a compelling one that warns of peak/reversal threats to each if they cannot sustain recent gains above our new short-term risk parameters at 3.88 and 4.12, respectively.  Please review today's Technical Webcast for details.

(DX) Tighten S-T USD Index, Euro Risk Parameters to 97.38, 1.0890, Respectively -by Dave Toth
Technicals, Webcasts
March 26, 2015; 11:10am

Given waning short-term momentum as the USD Index nears the formerly resistant 95-handle that is now considered a new support candidate, traders are advised to tighten their risk assumption of cautious bearish exposure to Tue's 97.38 minor corrective high and new short-term risk parameter.  Please review today's Technical Webcast for details that include a similar but inverted view of the Euro and a new short-term risk level at 1.0890.

(NG) EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Recap
Fundamentals
March 26, 2015; 9:50am

-Nat gas stocks post 1st net injection of the year
-Weekly net injection earlier than usual
-Stocks increase slightly larger than expected

(BO) CBOT Grains Morning Comments
Fundamentals
March 26, 2015; 8:35am

-Russian crop ideas continue to bump higher
-Record Argentine soybean yields reported
-Brazil crop estimates raised
-USDA reports new crop soybean sales
-Trade estimates for upcoming USDA reports

Disclaimer

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by R.J. O’Brien & Associates. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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© Copyright 2008-2015 | R.J.O’Brien Market Research & Trading. | All rights reserved.