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© Copyright 2008-2014
R.J.O’Brien Market Research & Trading.
All rights reserved.

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Welcome. R.J.O'Brien Market Research & Trading is dedicated to providing commodity futures
and options traders the latest technical analysis and fundamental research on the financial,
agricultural, energy, foreign exchange, soft & metal markets.
Market Spotlight

(ES) RJOMRT Previews & Perspectives for Monday, April 21
April 20, 2014; 9:50pm

  • Weekly Preview 
  • Leading indicators expected to show strong back-to-back increase
  • Q1 earnings so far beat expectations 
  • U.S. may soon decide on new sanctions on Russia since there has been no de-escalation of tensions 
  • Overseas news dominated by Chinese and European PMIs

(ES) Global Calendar - Monday 4/21/14
April 20, 2014; 9:49pm

 Global Calendar - Monday 4/21/14

(CL) Commodity Calendar - Monday 4/21/2014
April 20, 2014; 9:47pm

 Commodity Calendar - Monday 4/21/2014

(SB) Weekly Softs Recap
April 20, 2014; 9:46pm

Softs on Thursday settled mixed:  SBK4 -0.26 (-1.54%), KCK4 +15.25 (+8.20%), CCK4 +45 (+1.52%), CTK4 -0.87 (-0.96%).  May sugar prices on Thursday closed lower on speculation that global sugar supplies will still remain abundant even with the drought in Brazil.  

(LC) Weekly Livestock Recap
April 20, 2014; 9:45pm

Livestock prices on Thursday settled mixed: LCM4 -1.250 (-0.92%), LHM4 +1.050 (+0.85%).  Jun cattle Thursday fell to a 1-1/2 month low as a plunge in feeder cattle prices fueled long liquidation in live cattle futures.  Supplies remain tight after USDA slaughter data showed  8.288 million head of cattle processed this year through Apr 12, down -6.3% from the same time last year.

(ES) Market Recap - Financials, Metals & Energy
April 20, 2014; 9:44pm

The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed slightly higher.  Bullish factors included  (1) the +2,000 increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, less than expectations of +15,000, (2) the +7.6 point increase in the Apr Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to a 7-month high of 16.6, better than expectations of +1.0 to 10.0.  Bearish factors included (1) disappointing earnings results from Google, IBM, and UnitedHealth Group, and (2) the ongoing crisis in Ukraine where there was no sign of the de-escalation that Russia agreed to last Thursday.  Closes: S&P 500 +0.14%, Dow Jones -0.10%, Nasdaq +0.04%.

(BO) CFTC Commitments of Traders Recap for Data as of 04/15/14
Technicals, Fundamentals
April 19, 2014; 10:14am

This post contains a summary of the latest CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders data. As always, a historical look at this data can be found on the RJO MRT website at http://www.rjomrt.com/content/cftc.php

(NG) Nat Gas Resumes Rebound, Defines New S-T Risk -by Dave Toth
April 17, 2014; 12:10pm

In Tue's Technical Blog we conceded that while that day's failure below 4.522 confirmed a bearish divergence in momentum, that mo failure was of an insufficient scale to suggest anything but an interim corrective dip.  Today's smart recovery above

(W) Wheat Rebound Defines New $6.91 S-T Key -by Dave Toth
April 17, 2014; 11:15am

The hourly chart of the Jul contract below shows not only the past week's smart recovery above prior 6.93-area resistance, but also yesterday's relapse attempt that held at that former resistance-turned-support level of 6.91.  Since this recent rebound failed to break 20-Mar's key 7.25 high, the prospect that

(C) S-T Corn Failure Early Sign of Trouble, Opportunity for Producers to Hedge -by Dave Toth
April 17, 2014; 10:55am

In Tue's Technical Blog we identified 10-Apr's 5.00 low in the now-prompt Jul contract as our new short-term risk parameter this market needed to sustain gains above to avoid a momentum failure and maintain a broader bullish count.  As a direct result of this morning's break below 5.00, the hourly chart below shows that the market has

(NG) EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Recap
April 17, 2014; 9:50am

-Nat gas stocks rise, but less than expected

(AC) U.S. & Global Good Friday Holiday Trading Schedule
Technicals, Fundamentals, Trade Strategies, Webcasts
April 17, 2014; 9:35am

This post contains PDF files summarizing U.S. and Global market trading times and closures for the Good Friday holiday. Some U.S. markets have early closings today, while all U.S. markets are closed on Friday and generally resume regular schedules on Monday. Please see the attached files to verify market times as some global markets are open on Friday and closed Monday.

(C) U.S. Soil/Crop Moisture Recap
April 17, 2014; 9:20am

This post contains maps detailing U.S. soil moisture conditions, as well as soil temperatures for Iowa and Illinois. The Crop Moisture Index map is valuable in that it reflects available soil moisture relative to crop needs at the current time. Soil temperatures will be watched over the coming weeks as temperatures of 50 degrees F are desired before corn planting typically will commence.

(AC) Ethanol Reaffirms Reversal, Defines New $2.429 Risk Parameter -by Dave Toth
April 17, 2014; 9:20am

In 01-Apr's Technical Blog we discussed the sustainability of Mar's meteoric run at Jul'11's 3.07 high and identified 27-Mar's 2.518 corrective low as the risk parameter the market needed to fail below to break the uptrend and expose a larger-degree correction or reversal lower.  This 2.518 threshold was

(C) CBOT Grains Morning Comments -by Randy Mittelstaedt
April 17, 2014; 8:20am

-Talk of large Chinese soybean defaults continues
-Wheat/corn sales solid, soybeans net positive again
-USDA reports corn sold to S. Korea
-S. Plains remain dry/corn belt to warm
-EU crop estimate updates


This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by R.J. O’Brien & Associates. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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© Copyright 2008-2014 | R.J.O’Brien Market Research & Trading. | All rights reserved.