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© Copyright 2008-2014
R.J.O’Brien Market Research & Trading.
All rights reserved.

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Welcome. R.J.O'Brien Market Research & Trading is dedicated to providing commodity futures
and options traders the latest technical analysis and fundamental research on the financial,
agricultural, energy, foreign exchange, soft & metal markets.
Market Spotlight

(GC) Gold, Silver Rebounds Generate Base/Reversal Threats -by Dave Toth
Technicals, Webcasts
April 24, 2014; 10:20am

Today's sharp rebounds above our short-term risk parameters in both gold and silver have confirmed bullish divergences in short-term momentum that stem their recent slides and warn of at least interim corrections higher.  Proximities to recent range-base support and an arguably complete 5-wave Elliott Wave sequence down in silver warn that any such recovery could surprise by its scope.  Please review today's Technical Webcast for details.

(C) U.S. Soil/Crop Moisture Recap
April 24, 2014; 10:10am

This post contains maps detailing U.S. soil moisture conditions, as well as soil temperatures for Iowa and Illinois. The Crop Moisture Index map is valuable in that it reflects available soil moisture relative to crop needs at the current time. Soil temperatures will be watched over the coming weeks as temperatures of 50 degrees F are desired before corn planting typically will commence. A notable increase in soil temps was seen over the last week with many locations in IL/IA now at or above that threshold this week.

(NG) EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Recap
April 24, 2014; 9:40am

-Nat gas stocks build larger than expected

(C) Corn Rebounds Raise Key L-T Risk Parameters on Bullish Counts -by Dave Toth
April 24, 2014; 9:25am

While the Jul contract failed to eclipse our short-term risk parameter at 5.13, the extent of this week's rebound is certainly enough to define Mon's 4.91 low as the end of a 3-wave structure as labeled in the hourly chart below.  Left unaltered by a relapse below

(C) CBOT Grains Morning Comments -by Randy Mittelstaedt
April 24, 2014; 8:21am

-Stats Canada acreage estimates generally supportive
-Export Sales report largely as expected
-Trade estimates for Cattle on Feed report
-Brazil to see lower ethanol exports in coming year
-Wet/cool near term corn belt weather

(C) USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales Recap -by Randy Mittelstaedt
April 24, 2014; 8:05am

-Old crop soybean sales stay positive, although minimal
-Corn sales as expected, but much larger than "needed"
-Wheat sales as expected - keep pace with USDA estimate
-Solid old crop SBM sales again

(ES) Overnight Developments - Financials, Metals and Energy
April 24, 2014; 6:39am

 ECB President Draghi said that any worsening of the medium-term outlook for inflation in the Eurozone "would be the context for a more broad-based... 

(HG) Copper Takes Next Step in Base/Reversal Process, Defines New Risk Parameters -by Dave Toth
April 24, 2014; 6:35am

In 16-Apr's Technical Blog following that day's rather surprising (to us, at least) rebound above 3.0415, we discussed the resulting factors that warned this market could be in the throes of a much broader base/reversal process.  Today's impulsive spike above

(ES) RJOMRT Previews & Perspectives for Thursday, April 24
April 23, 2014; 9:01pm

  • Unemployment claims at 6-year lows illustrates labor market improvement 
  • Durable goods orders expected to show spring improvement 
  • 7-year T-note auction to yield near 2.31%
  • U.S. crude oil inventories reach record high as U.S. oil production creates glut 

(CL) Commodity Calendar - Thursday 4/24/2014
April 23, 2014; 9:00pm

 Commodity Calendar - Thursday 4/24/2014

(ES) Global Calendar - Thursday 4/24/14
April 23, 2014; 9:00pm

 Global Calendar - Thursday 4/24/14

(ES) Market Recap - Financials, Metals & Energy
April 23, 2014; 8:58pm

The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower.  Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected -14.5% slide in U.S. Mar new home sales to an 8-month low of 384,000, weaker than expectations of a +2.3% increase to 450,000, and (2) concern over Chinese economic growth after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI rose only +0.3 to 48.3, the fourth month that manufacturing activity in China has been below the expansion-contraction level of 50.0.  Closes: S&P 500 -0.22%, Dow Jones -0.08%, Nasdaq -0.88%.

(LH) Hog Bull May Still Have Another Kick Left -by Dave Toth
April 23, 2014; 1:45pm

This morning's recovery above last Thur's 124.82 high on an hourly close-only basis below is enough to stem Mar-Apr's slide and expose at least the intermediate-term trend as up.  This strength defines

(AC) EIA Weekly Ethanol Data Recap -by Randy Mittelstaedt
April 23, 2014; 11:55am

-Ethanol production declines from last week
-Weekly production above USDA "needed" corn demand level
-Ethanol stocks rebound sharply

(CL) EIA Weekly Petroleum Data Recap
April 23, 2014; 11:35am

-Crude oil stocks rise slightly more than expected
-Gasoline stocks decline slightly less than expected
-Distillate stocks post minor build vs ideas for minor decline


This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by R.J. O’Brien & Associates. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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