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(C) Corn Technicals Still Heavy While Below $3.68
Technicals, February 8, 2010; 1:00pm
While the RSI measure of momentum in the daily log corn chart below indicates a slowdown in the rate of descent over the past couple weeks, it remains a descent nonetheless. Unlike today's soybean gains above a recent corrective high at 9.30 discussed in this morning's Technical Blog that has defined a more objective low and support there, the corn market has yet to prove strength above
(S) S-T Mo Failure Defines $9.00 Soybean Low, Exposes Recovery
Technicals, February 8, 2010; 11:00am
This morning's poke above 02-Feb's 9.30 corrective high detailed in the hourly chart below confirms a bullish divergence in momentum. Relatively to the magnitude of Jan-Feb's16% plunge from 10.74, this is a minor momentum failure at best and insufficient to conclude a larger-degree low and reversal. This said, the fact that this divergence stems from the extreme lower recesses of the past six months' range warrants a move to a
(CT) Cotton Resumes Developing Downtrend, Possible Major Reversal
Technicals, February 8, 2010; 8:55am
Fri's impulsive break below 02-Feb's 68.18 low and 50% retrace of Aug-Jan's 59.47 - 76.60 rally discussed in 03-Feb's Technical Blog has obviously reaffirmed the past month's developing downtrend shown in the daily chart below and exposes further and possibly accelerated losses straight away.
(CC) Major Cocoa Reversal Threat Continues; $3,154 New, Tightest Risk
Technicals, February 8, 2010; 8:25am
Beginning with 25-Jan's Technical Blog and through subsequent blogs and 28-Jan's webcast we've been discussing the developing peaking/reversal threat that could be major in scope. Last week's continued losses did nothing but reinforce this threat that stems from the unique combination of a major bearish divergence in weekly momentum shown in the weekly log chart below amidst historically extreme bullish sentiment. Indeed, the recent and whopping
(ES) US Morning Call: Global stocks mostly lower on Greece's deficit crisis; Mar S&Ps down -1.60; Feb Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly declines.
February 8, 2010; 6:54am
Global stocks are mostly lower with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index down -0.09% and March S&Ps down -1.60 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and commodities are stronger. European stocks and the euro are trying to recover from last week's rout after...
(ES) US Economic Preview - Weekly Market Factors; Fed Policy; Q4 Earnings
February 6, 2010; 5:26pm
Market attention this week will focus on (1) whether Europe comes up with the rumored plan to bail Greece out of its debt troubles, a factor that helped the US stock market recover sharply late last Friday, (2) this week’s key US economic reports, which include Wednesday’s US ...
(ES) Financial Comment for Friday, Feb 5
Fundamentals, February 5, 2010; 11:42pm
The US stock market last Friday traded in negative territory most of the day but then rallied sharply late in the day to finish with modest gains (Dow Jones +0.10%, S&P 500 +0.29%, Nasdaq Composite +0.74%). The S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite all slid to 3-month lows before recovering. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) massive short-covering in the final hour of trade on speculation that the...
(CL) Energy Comment for Friday, Feb 5
Fundamentals, February 5, 2010; 11:41pm
Mar crude oil last Friday sold off sharply for the second straight session and closed down -$1.95 per barrel. Mar gasoline closed down -6.44 cents per gallon. Mar crude and Mar gasoline both fell to 1-3/4 month nearest-futures lows. Bearish factors included (1) continued strength ...
(GC) Dollar rally creates negative medium-term outlook for gold
Fundamentals, February 5, 2010; 2:22pm
Spot gold prices in the past two months have fallen sharply by a total of $166 per ounce or 13.5% from the record high of $1226.40 posted on December to the current 3-month low of $1061.30. That sell-off retraced only a small part of the extraordinary rally in gold prices during 2005-2009 when gold prices tripled from the $400 area to over $1200 per ounce. That rally was driven by the generally weak dollar and by the ...
(W) Wheat Technicals Still Bearish Below $4.95
Technicals, February 5, 2010; 2:20pm
While a slowed rate of descent as the market approaches last Oct's key 4.59-area lows and support is understandable and may lead to a reversal higher, the proof of such prospective strength lies in the market's ability to confirm a bullish divergence in momentum above the latest pertinent corrective high. Given the
(KC) Weekly Softs Comment
Fundamentals, February 5, 2010; 2:11pm
COFFEE—March Nybot Arabica coffee prices extended their correction down to a 4-month low from December’s 1-1/2 yr high. Bearish factors include (1) generalized weakness in commodity prices due to the stronger dollar and the sharp sell-off in the stock market, (2) weakness in ...
(CT) Weekly Cotton Comment
Fundamentals, February 5, 2010; 2:10pm
March cotton prices have continued their sharp downward correction to a 3-1/2 month low from their recent 1-1/2 yr high. Bearish factors include (1) general commodity weakness with the rally in the dollar and weak stock market, (2) ICAC’s report that 2009 global cotton demand ...
(LC) Weekly Livestock Comment
Fundamentals, February 5, 2010; 2:10pm
CATTLE—Apr live cattle prices are trading just below their recent 9-1/2 month high. Bullish factors include (1) some forward bull spreading and fund buying, (2) the Jan 29 cattle inventory report that showed the US cattle herd as of Jan 1 at 93.7 mln head, a 51-yr low, and (3) the ...
(S) Pare Bearish Soybean Exposure on Recovery Above Tight $9.30 Risk Parameter
Technicals, February 5, 2010; 1:50pm
As the market approaches the extreme lower recesses of the past six months' range shown in the daily close-only chart of the Mar10 contract below, the slowdown in the rate of descent is clear in the rate-of-change measure of momentum. Just like when the market initially failed to sustain 10.36+ gains on07-Jan detailed in the hourly chart (center) that led to a greater collapse, we don't want to
(RB) RBOB Relapse Reopens Broader Bearish Prospects
Technicals, February 5, 2010; 1:20pm
This week's sharp relapse and break below Mon's 1.8973 low detailed in the 240-min chart below clearly confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as down. Today's 1.9595 high stands out as the latest and tightest corrective high this market is now minimally required to recoup to defer or threaten a broader bearish count, with former 1.9000-area support considered new near-term resistance.
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