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(ES) Financial News Schedule – Monday 1/30/12
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 8:16pm
Financial News Schedule – Monday 1/30/12
(CL) Commodity Calendar - Monday 1/30/2012
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 8:15pm
Commodity Calendar - Monday 1/30/2012
(SB) Weekly Softs Recap
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 8:13pm
The USDA reported that export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the week ended Jan 19 were 31,120 running bales, down -85% from a week earlier.
(LC) Meats Weekly Recap
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 8:10pm
The Cattle on Feed report showed U.S. feedlots bought 1.683 million head of cattle in Dec, down -5.9% y/y and the biggest decline in 7 months after a drought in the southern U.S. reduced the number of animals available for sale. Cattle on feed as of Jan 1 were 103% of the year-earlier level, while cattle placed on feed in Dec fell to 94% of the year-earlier level vs. Nov’s 105%.
(ES) Market Recap - Financials, Metals & Energy for Friday, Jan 27
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 8:09pm
Q4 U.S. GDP expanded by +2.8% annualized, slower than expectations of +3.0% annualized, as Q4 personal consumption grew +2.0%, weaker than expectations of +2.4%.
(CL) Option Analytics and Technical Data
Technicals, January 27, 2012; 7:45pm
(AC) CFTC Commitments of Traders Recap
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 3:07pm
(S) 2011/12 U.S. Soybean Exports In Question
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 1:15pm
A closer review of yesterday's U.S. soybean export sales data revealed increasing concern about the potential to reach the USDA's current 2011/12 export projection of 1.275 billion bushels. Based on historical sales from this point forward in past years, and current ideas on South American export potential, we have revised our expectations on this year's U.S. soybean exports.
(BO) Bean Oil, Meal, Wheat Recoveries Define New S-T Risk Parameters
January 27, 2012; 1:15pm
If the past week's rallies in the bean oil, meal and wheat markets are part of broader base/reversal environments as we've proposed, then it's incumbent on these markets to now sustain trendy, impulsive behavior upwards. Please review today's Technical Webcast for details of the shorter-term corrective lows that these rallies have left in their wakes that also serve as the tighter parameters around which shorter-term traders can effectively manage the risks of bullish positions. Given meal's flirtation with 09-Jan's key 324.5 high and the wheat market's precarious position up against 03-Jan's 6.71 high and range cap, these shorter-term risk parameters may prove handy in the days immediately ahead.
(C) Beware Interim Corn, Soybean Vulnerabilities Below "Tight" $6.25, $12.08 Risk Parameters
Technicals, January 27, 2012; 10:21am
The extent and impulsiveness of the corn and soybean recoveries the past week or so are consistent with broader base/reversal counts we've discussed since mid-Dec's initial counter-trend rallies. Trying to now find flaws in these bullish counts to effectively manage risk, the fact of the matter is that both these markets remain within at least the past couple months' ranges where their current positions at the upper-recesses of these ranges could leave them vulnerable. Please review today's Technical Webcast for details that include key short-term but objective risk parameters at $6.25 in Mar corn and $12.08 in Mar beans, the breaks of which would warrant defensive measure for shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles. Additionally, traders are advised to take profits on the Feb 6.10 / Mar 6.50 call diagonal recommended in 19-Jan Trading Strategies Blog on the immediate failure below 6.25 in Mar corn.
(LC) Navigating Upper-Range Cattle While Hogs Try to Reverse Oct-Dec Slide
Technicals, January 27, 2012; 9:30am
While this week's acknowledgement of the extreme upper recesses of the past quarter's range as resistance is not unexpected and must be approached cautiously, we don't believe the market has yet to provide enough of a momentum failure to warrant moving to a neutral/sideline position. Please review today's Technical Webcast for details that include the hog market's attempt to reverse Oct-Dec's broader slide and the pertinent risk parameters defined as a result of this week's gains.
(DX) USD Confirms Major Peak/Reversal Threat
Technicals, January 27, 2012; 9:05am
Since early-Jan's resumption of the USD's major bull trend that dates from early-May'11's 72.96 low, we have highlighted 03-Jan's 79.65 corrective low close as a key risk parameter the market needed to fail below expose a larger-degree peak/reversal threat. Now, combined with some of the most frothy bullish sentiment accorded the USD since that that accompanied Jun'10's major peak/reversal, this week's failure below that pivotal 79.65-area risk parameter warns of another such major peak/reversal environment. Please review today's Technical Webcast for details that include the reaffirmation of similar but inversely bullish technical conditions in the Euro.
(C) CBOT Grains Pre-Open Comment
Fundamentals, January 27, 2012; 8:41am
The Senate held a hearing to investigate whether mutual funds moving into the commodities market violates US law by avoiding taxes. The mutual fund industry’s overall stake in commodities rose to $50B in 2011 vs. just $10B in 2008, but represents just a fraction of the $11T in total assets in the industry
(GC) Strong Metals Complex Technicals Reinforced With Wed's Impressive, Impulsive Gains
January 27, 2012; 8:40am
While Wed's gains in gold and silver were obviously impressive and certainly reinforce the past month's rallies in both, traders are reminded of how this behavior contributes to long-term bullish counts that ultimately warn of a resumption of their secular bull trends to eventual new all-times highs. Please review today's Technical Webcast for details that include coverage of the copper market and resulting risk parameters in all three markets.
(CL) Energy Complex Technicals Present Mixed Bag
Technicals, January 27, 2012; 8:13am
While the clear and present uptrend in the RBOB market defines this market's dominant technical factor, the crude oil market presents a mixed bag of technical factors while this week's recovery in heating oil tilts its directional scales upward. Please review today's Technical Webcast for the confusing details that, generally, warrants conservative risk assumption in all three markets.
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