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(S) U.S. Soybean and Soybean Product Balance Sheet Updates
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 2:30pm
The following post contains an updated look at our U.S. soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal balance sheets following today's USDA report. Also shown is an early look at the 2010/11 soybean situation, as well.
(C) U.S. Corn Balance Sheet Update
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 2:30pm
The following post contains an updated look at our U.S. corn balance sheet following today's USDA report. Also shown is an early look at the 2010/11 situation, as well.
(W) U.S. All Wheat and By-Class Balance Sheet Updates
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 2:25pm
The following post contains an updated look at our U.S. all wheat and by-class wheat balance sheets following today's USDA report. Also shown is an early look at the 2010/11 situation, as well.
(W) Wheat Bear Intact Below $4.92 Minimum; Trail Stops
Technicals, March 10, 2010; 2:20pm
The market's continued impulsive behavior down is clear in the hourly chart below with today's latest spate of losses leaving today's 4.92 high in its wake as the latest and tightest corrective high the market is now minimally required to recoup to defer or threaten a continued bearish count. As a result, traders are advised to trail protective buy-stops to
(S) Bean Strength Above $9.72 Needed to Threaten Bear; Maintain Apr Put Butterfly
Technicals, March 10, 2010; 1:55pm
Today's recovery detailed in the hourly chart below is not unimpressive and exposes the recent 9.84 - 9.35 setback as a 3-wave and thus corrective affair that could set the base for a spike above 9.84. On the heels of late-Feb/early-Mar's peaking/reversal behavior however, as well as Feb's exact
(C) Corn Technicals Still Heavy Below $3.77 Minimum; Maintain Apr/May Put Diagonal
Technicals, March 10, 2010; 1:20pm
The extent of this week's follow-through to last week's short-term peaking/reversal behavior detailed in the hourly chart below reinforces our prefered bearish wave count that contends that Feb's 3.59 - 3.91 recovery is a 3-wave affair as labeled. Left unalteredby strength above 01-Mar's 3.91 high, this recovery is considered a
(RB) EIA Shows Decline in U.S. Gasoline Stocks
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 1:02pm
EIA released its weekly Petroleum Status Report this morning and reported a draw in gasoline stocks of 3.0M barrels on the week, bringing total U.S. gasoline stocks to 229.0M barrels. The decline in stocks counters the estimated weekly change of a 100k barrel build, but begins to conform to the expected seasonal decline in stocks
(CT) Minor Mo Failure Insufficient to Threaten Cotton Bull, But Worth Close Watch
Technicals, March 10, 2010; 12:45pm
There is no question that yesterday's relapse below last week's 80.66 low detailed in the 240-min chart confirms a bearish divergence in momentum. We believe this weakness defines 01-Mar's 84.60 high as the end of the rally from 05-Feb's 67.80 low. And given the magnitude of the secular bull run cotton's been on, this dip is advised to first be approached as
(TY) 10-Yr T-Note Market Reinforces Peak/Reversal; Sell w/117.08 Stop
Trade Strategies, March 10, 2010; 11:05am
With today's break below Mon's 116.23 low detailed in the 240-min chart below, the market has confirmed at least the intermediate-term trend as down. And as a direct and very important result, it has defined Tue's 117.07 high as the corrective high it's now got to recoup to threaten a peaking/reversal environment that arguably dates to early-Feb and that could have significant
(CC) Beware S-T But Potentially Pivotal Cocoa Mo Failure Above $2,887
Technicals, March 10, 2010; 10:45am
While the scale of a confirmed momentum failure above 05-Mar's 2887 latest corrective high detailed in the 240-min chart below is too small to conclude the end of the past quarter's slide, and interesting long-term Fibonacci relationship warns to beware of just such a recovery. As a result, a bearish policy and bearish exposure are advised to be
(C) USDA Revises December 1 U.S. Corn Stocks
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 10:45am
As part of today's USDA revision of the U.S. corn crop, a concurrent revision was also made to the December 1 U.S. corn stocks figure initially released January 12. The change in December 1 stocks left the view of 1st feed usage unchanged from the initial view presented in mid-January despite the slightly lowered crop estimate today.
(KC) S-T Coffee Gains Expose Further, Interim Correction While 130.00 Holds
Technicals, March 10, 2010; 10:30am
Yesterday's recovery above 01-Mar's 133.05 high detailed in the 240-min chart below confirms at least the short-term trend as up. Within the context of the past quarter's developing decline shown in the daily log chart (center), it would be premature at this juncture to consider this recovery as anything but an
(C) USDA March Grain Revisions Generally Negative
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 8:55am
USDA’s U.S. balance sheet revisions were mostly negatively biased with lower demand for corn and wheat, while the production revisions to the U.S. corn and soybean crops were negligible and a non-event. Today’s numbers won’t provide the market anything new fundamentally as it searches for underlying support.
(W) USDA March Wheat Balance Sheet Revisions
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 8:35am
(S) USDA March Soybean Balance Sheet Revisions
Fundamentals, March 10, 2010; 8:34am
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